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feat(product-roadmapping-and-portfolio): add product roadmapping and portfolio skill (#215)
Introduce the product-roadmapping-and-portfolio skill for outcome-based sequencing and strategic-bet management. Covers Now/Next/Later views, continue/pause/kill/revisit criteria, capacity allocation, dependency and confidence mapping, scenario planning, stakeholder narratives, and roadmap review cadences. Routes tactical prioritization (RICE, MoSCoW, Kano, OST) to their canonical owners in product-methodology and product-strategy. Includes: - SKILL.md with core methodology, loading guide, and routing table - README.md with human-facing overview and trigger guidance - 5 reference files (outcome roadmapping, strategic bets, dependency and confidence view, scenario comparison, roadmap review cadence) - 1 discovery brief reconciling duplicated framework references - 3 fillable templates (outcome roadmap, bet record, review record) - evals/evals.json with 5 schema-valid cases covering competing bets, dependency invalidation, low-confidence opportunity, capacity shortfall, and stop-bet-with-evidence Closes #189 Co-authored-by: username <username> Co-authored-by: factory-droid[bot] <138933559+factory-droid[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>
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username <username>
factory-droid[bot] <138933559+factory-droid[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>
username <username>
factory-droid[bot] <138933559+factory-droid[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>
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---
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name: product-roadmapping-and-portfolio
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description: >-
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Build and maintain outcome-based product roadmaps and portfolio views that
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sequence strategic bets by evidence, not dates. Covers Now/Next/Later views,
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strategic-bet management, capacity allocation, dependency and confidence
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mapping, scenario planning, continue/pause/kill/revisit criteria, stakeholder
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narratives, and roadmap review cadences. Use when building or reviewing a
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product roadmap, managing a portfolio of bets, or communicating strategic
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sequencing to stakeholders. Do NOT use for tactical prioritization mechanics
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(RICE, MoSCoW, Kano, OST — route to product-methodology or product-strategy),
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for project scheduling or Gantt charts, or for delivery-flow management
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(route to kanban-guru).
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license: MIT
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compatibility: Agent harness with file read/write and skill loading
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metadata:
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tags: product-roadmapping, portfolio-management, strategic-bets, outcome-roadmaps,
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now-next-later, scenario-planning, roadmap-communication
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---
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# Product Roadmapping and Portfolio Management
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Build roadmaps that communicate strategic intent without pretending to predict the future. This skill covers outcome-based sequencing, strategic-bet management, and portfolio-level choices — not feature-level prioritization or project scheduling.
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## Core Principles
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1. **Roadmaps are not project schedules.** A roadmap communicates strategic direction and sequencing intent. It does not commit to dates by default. The default view is Now/Next/Later; dates appear only when explicitly labeled as commitments.
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2. **Distinguish four categories in every artifact.** Every roadmap output separates evidence (observed data), assumptions (beliefs not yet validated), commitments (decisions with consequences for reversal), and options (alternatives under consideration).
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3. **Bets, not plans.** Each roadmap item is a strategic bet — an investment with an expected outcome, a confidence level, explicit dependencies, and pre-defined continue/pause/kill/revisit criteria. A roadmap is a portfolio of bets, not a to-do list.
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4. **Portfolio thinking scales up and down.** The same bet-record and roadmap structure works for a single product and for a portfolio of products.
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## Loading Guide
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| File | Load when |
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|---|---|
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| [references/outcome-roadmapping.md](references/outcome-roadmapping.md) | Building or reviewing a Now/Next/Later outcome roadmap |
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| [references/strategic-bets.md](references/strategic-bets.md) | Defining, evaluating, or comparing strategic bets |
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| [references/dependency-confidence-view.md](references/dependency-confidence-view.md) | Mapping cross-bet dependencies or calibrating confidence |
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| [references/scenario-comparison.md](references/scenario-comparison.md) | Comparing alternative futures or building scenario plans |
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| [references/roadmap-review-cadence.md](references/roadmap-review-cadence.md) | Designing or running a roadmap review process |
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| [references/discovery-brief.md](references/discovery-brief.md) | Understanding ownership boundaries and routing rules |
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| [templates/outcome-roadmap.md](templates/outcome-roadmap.md) | Fillable Now/Next/Later roadmap template |
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| [templates/bet-record.md](templates/bet-record.md) | Fillable strategic-bet record |
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| [templates/roadmap-review-record.md](templates/roadmap-review-record.md) | Recording a roadmap review session |
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## Working Method
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### 1. Start with outcomes, not features
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Define outcomes as measurable "from → to" statements. Route evidence to `product-analytics-and-measurement`.
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### 2. Map the Now/Next/Later landscape
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Now = committed (WIP-limited), Next = validated/provisional, Later = options only. Dates only when labeled as commitments.
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### 3. Build bet records
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Every bet: outcome hypothesis, evidence, confidence (H/M/L with rationale), risk, dependencies, capacity, continue/pause/kill/revisit criteria.
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### 4. Map dependencies and confidence
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Blocking, enabling, shared-capacity, external dependencies. Effective confidence bounded by dependency health.
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### 5. Compare scenarios
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Base case + alternative scenarios for consequential decisions. Identify robust, conditional, fragile bets.
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### 6. Define review cadence
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Monthly for Now, quarterly for Next/Later. Record decisions with rationale.
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### 7. Communicate to stakeholders
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Executive narrative, team view, external/customer view — each tailored.
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## Routing Table
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| When the task involves... | Route to... |
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|---|---|
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| RICE scoring, MoSCoW prioritization, OST workflow | [product-methodology](../product-methodology/SKILL.md) — canonical tactical owner |
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| Kano model, OST strategic framing, competitive positioning | [product-strategy](../product-strategy/SKILL.md) — strategic frameworks |
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| Capital allocation, M&A portfolio choices | [strategy-frameworks](../strategy-frameworks/SKILL.md) — corporate strategy |
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| Delivery flow, WIP limits, throughput, cycle time | [kanban-guru](../kanban-guru/SKILL.md) — execution-level flow |
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| Evidence, metrics, analytics instrumentation | `product-analytics-and-measurement` — analytics layer (prose reference) |
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| Implementation planning for approved bets | `implementation-planning` — handoff target (prose reference) |
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| Experiment design for low-confidence bets | `product-experimentation` — downstream consumer (prose reference) |
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| Adoption measurement for shipped bets | `product-adoption` — downstream consumer (prose reference) |
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| Lifecycle learning from bet outcomes | `product-lifecycle-learning` — downstream consumer (prose reference) |
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## When Not to Use
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- **For tactical prioritization mechanics** (RICE scores, MoSCoW buckets, Kano categorization, OST trees): route to `product-methodology` or `product-strategy`. This skill references these frameworks only to describe *where* they fit, never to re-explain formulas or mechanics.
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- **For project scheduling, Gantt charts, or milestone tracking:** this skill produces outcome roadmaps, not project plans.
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- **For delivery-flow management:** route to `kanban-guru`.
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- **For corporate capital allocation and M&A portfolio decisions:** route to `strategy-frameworks`.
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## Evidence, Assumptions, Commitments, and Options
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Every roadmap artifact distinguishes these four categories:
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| Category | Definition | Example |
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| **Evidence** | Observed data, validated learning, experiment results | "A/B test showed 12% lift in retention (p < 0.05, n=4,200)" |
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| **Assumptions** | Beliefs not yet validated | "We assume users grant notification permissions at ~40%" |
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| **Commitments** | Decisions with defined consequences for reversal | "Q3: 8 engineer-weeks for payments migration" |
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| **Options** | Alternatives under consideration | "Build in-house vs. integrate third-party" |
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An artifact that mixes assumptions into evidence or presents options as commitments is not a valid output of this skill.
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