# Strategic Bets

Define and manage strategic bets with explicit confidence, risk, dependencies, and criteria.

## Bet Record
- Identity: name, owner, outcome hypothesis
- Evidence & Confidence: High/Medium/Low with explicit rationale
- Risk: value, usability, feasibility, business viability (H/M/L each)
- Dependencies: internal, external, shared-capacity
- Capacity: direct + indirect + ongoing (team-weeks)
- Criteria: continue, pause, kill, revisit — mandatory for Now bets

## Portfolio Comparison
Present dimensions side-by-side (alignment, confidence, impact, capacity, risk, time-to-evidence). No composite score — route to `product-methodology` for RICE.

## Lifecycle
IDENTIFIED (Later) → VALIDATED (Next) → COMMITTED (Next) → ACTIVE (Now) → EVALUATED → {CONTINUE, PAUSE, KILL}

## Anti-Patterns
No kill criteria → document them. Confidence without rationale → cite evidence. No pause criteria → define them. Composite scoring → present separately. No owner → assign one.