magnus919_agent-skills/actuarial-risk-modeling/templates/model-brief.md

Model Brief

Decision

• Decision owner:
• Intended action:
• Decision date and horizon:
• Cost of false positive:
• Cost of false negative:
• Descriptive, predictive, or causal question:

Target and Grain

• Unit of observation:
• Outcome and support:
• Prediction/measurement window:
• Exposure or offset:
• Event origin and development boundary:
• Grouping or repeated-entity structure:

Data Contract

• Source systems and extraction date:
• Inclusion/exclusion rules:
• Available-at-decision-time fields:
• Missingness states and treatment:
• Censoring/truncation:
• Known revisions or restatements:
• Privacy, fairness, or permitted-use constraints:

Candidate Models

Candidate	Why it fits	Key assumptions	Failure signal

Acceptance Criteria

• Primary decision metric:
• Secondary metrics:
• Calibration/tail/segment requirements:
• Stability requirement:
• Minimum evidence for release:
• Escalation owner: