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magnus919_agent-skills/agent-council/references/convergence.md
Magnus Hedemark 3a4aad40bf feat: add agent-council — multi-agent structured debate system
Spawns a panel of expert agents to debate any question with
convergence-aware iteration and typed synthesis output.

- PydanticAI + PydanticGraph-based Python package
- 5-phase debate protocol: compose → premortem → position →
  cross-examine (iterative, eval-driven) → synthesis
- Convergence detection: confidence dispersion, argument
  novelty, concession rate — stops when diminishing returns
- Typed output schemas (Pydantic models) for every phase
- CLI tool with markdown and JSON output modes
- Custom persona file support
- Bootstrap detection: sys.executable -m pip install fallback
- agentskills.io compatible SKILL.md with triggers

Signed-off-by: Magnus Hedemark <magnus919@pm.me>
2026-07-09 22:55:30 -04:00

1.9 KiB

Convergence Detection

The council uses algorithmic convergence detection to decide when to stop debating — not a fixed number of rounds.

Metrics

After each cross-examination round, four metrics are computed:

Metric Calculation Meaning
Mean confidence Average of all agents' updated_confidence values Overall conviction level
Dispersion Standard deviation of confidence values Agreement spread — how far apart agents are
New arguments remaining_disagreements + new_evidence_needed not seen in prior rounds Whether the debate is still surfacing new material
Concessions Count of items in concessions across all agents Whether positions are shifting

Decision Logic

if round >= max_rounds:
    stop_reason = "max_rounds"
elif dispersion < threshold and confidence_delta < 0.03:
    stop_reason = "converged"
elif new_arguments == 0 and concessions == 0 and rounds > 1:
    stop_reason = "diminishing_returns"
elif dispersion > threshold * 1.5 and concessions == 0 and new_arguments == 0:
    stop_reason = "genuine_disagreement"
else:
    stop_reason = "continue"  # run another round

Default Thresholds

Mode Default threshold Max rounds
quick 0.15 2
medium 0.10 4
deep 0.08 4

Diagnostic Interpretation

Pattern Meaning
Mean confidence DROPPED, dispersion WIDENED Council surfaced genuine doubt — healthy debate
Mean confidence ROSE, dispersion NARROWED Genuine convergence — agents convinced each other
Mean confidence STABLE, dispersion NARROWED False consensus — agents agreed before debating (possible shared blind spots)
Mean confidence ROSE, dispersion WIDENED Polarization — agents became more entrenched in their positions