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magnus919_agent-skills/qa-methodology/assets/risk-matrix-grid.md
usernameandfactory-droid[bot] <138933559+factory-droid[bot]@users.noreply.github.com> 332578766d feat(qa-methodology): add 5 fillable templates and 3 assets
Templates: test-strategy.md, risk-register.md, exploratory-charter.md,
bug-report.md, verification-plan.md — all with placeholder fields.

Assets: risk-matrix-grid.md (5x5 P×I grid consistent with
risk-based-testing.md and risk-prioritize.py),
test-design-techniques-checklist.md, qa-definition-of-done.md.

Co-authored-by: factory-droid[bot] <138933559+factory-droid[bot]@users.noreply.github.com>
2026-08-01 18:18:44 -04:00

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Risk Matrix Grid (5×5 Probability × Impact)

Use this grid during risk assessment workshops to score and zone risks. This grid is consistent with risk-based-testing.md and the risk-prioritize.py script.

Scoring Formula

Risk Score = Probability (15) × Impact (15)

5×5 Grid

P \ I 1 — Negligible 2 — Minor 3 — Moderate 4 — Major 5 — Catastrophic
5 — Almost Certain 5 (P3) 10 (P2) 15 (P1) 20 (P0) 25 (P0)
4 — Likely 4 (P3) 8 (P2) 12 (P1) 16 (P0) 20 (P0)
3 — Possible 3 (P3) 6 (P2) 9 (P2) 12 (P1) 15 (P1)
2 — Unlikely 2 (P3) 4 (P3) 6 (P2) 8 (P2) 10 (P2)
1 — Rare 1 (P3) 2 (P3) 3 (P3) 4 (P3) 5 (P3)

Zone Thresholds

Zone Score Range Priority Tier Action
Critical 2025 P0 Test exhaustively; every path, every edge case
High 1219 P1 Test all happy paths + known failure modes
Medium 611 P2 Test happy paths + common failure modes
Low 15 P3 Smoke test only; defer detailed testing

Probability Anchors

Rating Label Anchor
5 Almost Certain Will fail in production within a quarter (or has already)
4 Likely Expected to fail within a year
3 Possible Could fail; uncertain
2 Unlikely Unlikely given current controls
1 Rare Extremely unlikely; well-understood code

Impact Anchors

Rating Label Anchor
5 Catastrophic Data loss, security breach, revenue stoppage
4 Major Major feature outage, SLA breach
3 Moderate Degraded experience, workaround exists
2 Minor Cosmetic, minor inconvenience
1 Negligible No user-visible impact

Workshop Scoring Sheet

Record scores during the workshop, then transfer to templates/risk-register.md.

# Risk (short label) P (15) I (15) Score Zone Tier
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Calibration Rule

If probability votes span more than 2 points:

  1. The facilitator asks the highest and lowest voter to state their evidence.
  2. Re-vote once.
  3. Record dissent in the register.

Test Allocation by Tier

Tier Hours per Risk Item (default) Strategy
P0 816 Exhaustive design + automation
P1 48 Happy paths + failure modes
P2 24 Happy paths + common failures
P3 0.51 Smoke only

Adjustment: multiply by 1.5× for legacy/unfamiliar code, 0.7× for well-automated areas.